In contrast to conventional measures, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows the purpose-specific selection of models, thereby reflecting the idea that one kind of model might be appropriate for inferences on a parameter of interest, but not for another. Ever since its invention, the FIC...

Using monthly data for the period 19532003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model...