[...]We begin by discussing the so-called first generation ofmodels, in which crises are viewed in the literature as theunavoidable result of unsustainable policies or fundamentalimbalances. Next, we survey the literature on the secondgeneration of models, which highlights the possibility of...

A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharpappreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper findsthat negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered asignificant strengthening of the US dollar, rather...

The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis modelas part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systemsof developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robustinstruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behaviorconcentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven byfundamentals or by non-fundamental factors(...)

[...]In this study, we use recent historical evidence toexplore one dimension of the broad relationship betweenmarket returns and mutual fund flows: the effect of shorttermmarket returns on mutual fund flows. Research onthis issue has already confirmed high correlations betweenmarket returns and...

This paper explains a currency crisis as an outcome of a switch in how monetarypolicy and fiscal policy are coordinated. The paper develops a model of an open economy in which monetary policy starts active, fiscal policy starts passive and, in a particular state of nature, monetary policy...

A second-generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard model ofbanks as providers of insurance against liquidity risk. In a pegged exchange rateregime, after funds have been committed to the banks, news arrives about the qualityof the banks’ assets and about the exchange rate...

In currency crises, unlike in orderly devaluations, the financial markets dominateevents. It is shown that currency collapses (crises followed by depreciations) have hada much greater adverse impact in emerging markets (defined as relatively highincomedeveloping countries exposed to...

Stellt sich das Investitionsklima für deutsche Unternehmen seit der Krise von 1997/98 in Korea tatsächlich so positiv dar, wie Medienberichte und Wirtschaftszahlen suggerieren oder ist die Entwicklung möglicherweise nur auf einige wenige "Großeinkäufe" deutscher Großunternehmen...

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ’thirdgeneration’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the in-terplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities.Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains...