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Country Default Probabilities: Assessing and Backtesting
Vogl, Konstantin; Maltritz, Dominik; Huschens, Stefan; … - 2006
We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296810
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Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?
Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud - 2008
economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US … have a statistically but also an economically significant impact on the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen against the US … the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar in recent years. Interestingly, EME policy-makers appear to have become …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605019
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Zur Qualität professioneller Wechselkursprognosen
Schmidt, Robert - 2003
Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305747
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What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?
Fratzscher, Marcel - 2009
A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605106
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Sovereign risk in a structural approach: Evaluating sovereign ability-to-pay and probability of default
Karmann, Alexander; Maltritz, Dominik - 2003
We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305443
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China's dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri-polar global currency system
Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud - 2011
euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s “dominance hypothesis”, i.e. whether the renminbi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605438
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Mehr Kompetenzen für den EU-Währungskommissar – mehr Stabilität für die Währungsunion?
Straubhaar, Thomas - In: ifo Schnelldienst 65 (2012) 22, pp. 3-6
Nach einem Vorschlag von Wolfgang Schäuble soll der EU-Währungskommissar stärker Einfluss auf die Haushalte der Euromitgliedstaaten nehmen. Ein politisch unabhängiger, ausschließlich auf die Haushaltspolitik fokussierter EU-Währungskommissar könnte nach Ansicht von Thomas Straubhaar,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011693420
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Banking and debt crisis in Europe: The dangerous liaisons?
Candelon, Bertrand; Palm, Franz - 2010
The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated … the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before … self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270470
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Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg
Reade, J. James; Volz, Ulrich - 2010
This paper investigates to what extent Chinese monetary policy is constrained by the dollar peg. To this end, we use a cointegration framework to examine whether Chinese interest rates are driven by the Fed's policy. In a second step, we estimate a monetary model for China, in which we include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303913
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The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency
Clostermann, Jörg; Schnatz, Bernd - 2000
At the beginning of 1999 the euro was launched as a common currency in 11 European countries. This paper addresses … empirically the medium to long-term forces driving the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Constructing a synthetic euro … determinants of the real euro-dollar exchange rate: the international real interest rate differential, relative prices in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295690