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implications of the first decade of the Euro and to extend this understanding forwards to Europe and beyond. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010669631
the end of Pax Americana and the beginning of something else, possibly a Pax Europea, led by the strength of the euro … performance of these two economic blocs. While the current exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro has been considered a … worried. The strength of the euro is becoming irritating for the Eurozone and, nevertheless, the weakness of the US dollar is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789886
We propose a hierarchical Marshall–Olkin model of countrywide systemic risk. At the lower level, we model the systemic risk of a crisis within the banking system (that we call “within” systemic risk) and at the higher level we model the probability of a joint default of the banking system...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051970
The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790354
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838007
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123845
This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008529247
We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768797
euro's fault. As a result, some argued that Greece and eventually other bailed-out member states should abandon the euro … up on supporting them financially, forcing them to abandon the euro anyway. Yet, no such thing has happened. The euro and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009295311
Financial market interdependence has been at the epicenter of the crisis in the euro area. This paper tests for the … the standard contagion test of Favero and Giavazzi (2002) with a narrative approach to separate out global and euro area … shocks from country-specific shocks. Financial contagion has been widespread during the crisis in the euro area. Three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011193779