The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical...

During the pandemic, African banks rebalanced their portfolio towards sovereign assets, and crowding out of credit to private sector intensified. Policy support, however, averted a credit crunch. The increase in public debt across Africa due to the COVID-19 crisis intensified crowding out of...