Similar Search Results

Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142551

Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?

Chinn, Menzie David - 2012

currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates … (we estimate a weight on the preceding year's currency share around .9). The advent of the euro interrupts the continuity … equation correctly predicts a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2004. Whether the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105149

The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie David - 2010

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759417

The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

Taylor, Alan M. - 2013

This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments' precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087068

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2021

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218837

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances : 140 Years of Lessons

Jorda, Oscar - 2010

Do external imbalances increase the risk of financial crises? In this paper, we study the experience of 14 developed countries over 140 years (1870-2008). We exploit our long-run dataset in a number of different ways. First, we apply new statistical tools to describe the temporal and spatial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135415

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Taylor, Alan M. - 2012

In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances, the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096849

Credit Booms Gone Bust : Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008

Schularick, Moritz - 2010

The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150290

International Monetary Relations : Taking Finance Seriously

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2017

In our book, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth, we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the “international monetary trilemma”: countries can enjoy at most two from the set {exchange-rate stability, open capital markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954933

After the Panic : Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade

Benguria, Felipe - 2019

Are financial crises a negative shock to demand or a negative shock to supply? This is a fundamental question for both macroeconomics researchers and those involved in real-time policymaking, and in both cases the question has become much more urgent in the aftermath of the recent financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871558