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Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2010

Newly developed long historical time series on public debt, along with modern data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. The evidence confirms a strong link between banking crises and sovereign default across the economic history of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147119

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth - 2021

This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242908

Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2012

Lucas (1990) argued that it was a paradox that more capital does not flow from rich countries to poor countries. He rejected the standard explanation of expropriation risk and argued that paucity of capital flows to poor countries must instead be rooted in externalities in human capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116221

This Time is Different : A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2008

This paper offers a quot;panoramicquot; analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis. Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions. It incorporates a number of important credit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772366

Recovery from Financial Crises : Evidence from 100 Episodes

Reinhart, Carmen - 2014

We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6 1⁄2 years. Five to six years...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060679

International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability

Rogoff, Kenneth - 2022

This paper asks how recent developments in research on banking and sovereign lending can help inform the debate on choosing a new international financial architecture. A broad range of plans is considered, including a global lender of last resort facility, an international bankruptcy court, an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322108

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth : The Role of Financial Development

Aghion, Philippe - 2010

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country%u2019s level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761684

Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates

Froot, Kenneth; Rogoff, Kenneth - 2022

This paper reviews the large and growing literature which tests PPP and other models of the long-run real exchange rate. We distinguish three different stages of PPP testing and focus on what has been learned from each. The most important overall lesson has been that the real exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308612

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

Chen, Yu-Chin - 2010

We show that quot;commodity currencyquot; exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759436

Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight?

Ilzetzki, Ethan - 2020

On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We …, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since … 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger a role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841416