Using quarterly data for 10 Euro Area countries we assess the determinants of government bond yield spreads; compute bivariate time-varying coefficient models of each determinant; and use these estimates to explain economic volatility. We find that better fiscal positions or higher than expected...

We assess the time varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro-area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we...

We empirically assess whether a usually expected negative response of private consumption and private investment to a fiscal consolidation is reversed. We focus on a large sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018. We also employ three alternative measures of the Cyclically Adjusted Primary...

We study a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914, regarding the fiscal consequences of deflation. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the debt ratio of...

We revisit the twin deficit relationship for a sample of 193 countries over the period 1980-2016, using a panel fixed effect (within-group) estimator, bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable, system GMM, and common correlated effects pooled estimation procedures. The analysis accounts also...

We assess the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the period 1999-2016, considering non-conventional monetary policy measures in the Euro area. We use a 2-step approach: i) confirm (by means of model selection methods) and estimate (by means of panel techniques) the determinants of...

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

We assess, via system GMM, how Stock Flow Adjustments (SFA) affect the debt-to-GDP ratio in 65 countries (covering developed and emerging and low-income countries) between 1985-2014. We find that SFAs positively contribute to the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio with a coefficient close to one....

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence...

We use a panel of developed and emerging countries for the period 1970-2008 to assess the cyclicality of education, health, and social security government spending. We mostly find acyclical behaviour, but evidence also points to counter-cyclicality for social security spending, particularly in...