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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001810855
"This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable 'global' equilibria such as cycles and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002604599
"This paper explores the effects of central bank transparency on the performance of optimal inflation targeting rules. I assume that both the central bank and the private sector face uncertainty about the "correct" model of the economy and have to learn. A transparent central bank can reduce one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002604600
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001979875
? How are the price levels in the member countries determined? We extend the fiscal theory of the price level to the case of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013553440
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235033
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
This paper examines how the scale and composition of public debt can affect economies that implement a combination of "passive" monetary policy and "active" fiscal policy. This policy configuration is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest in the cases of the U.S. and Japanese...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009347987
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233241
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893