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The natural rate of interest : estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy

Brand, Claus (ed.); Bielecki, Marcin (ed.); … - Europäische Zentralbank / Task Force on Systemic Liquidity - 2018

Using a wide range of models we document a protracted fall in the natural (or neutral) rate of interest in advanced economies, driven by ageing, waning productivity growth, a rise in mark-ups, and a surge in risk aversion in the wake of the global financial crisis. While our neutral rate...