In this paper, we examine one channel through which the trade regime might affect growth in the long run. We model endogenous technological progress that results from profit maximizing investments by far-sighted entrepreneurs. Productivity in the research lab depends upon the "stock of knowledge...

This paper outlines a theoretical framework for thinking about the role of human capital in a model of endogenous growth. The framework pays particular attention to two questions: What are the theoretical differences between intangibles like education and experience on the one hand, and...

This paper demonstrates that several types of dynamic trade effects can be easily quantified, at least roughly. These dynamic effects on output are found to be much larger than the static effects measured by existing empirical studies of trade liberalizations. The paper exposits and measures the...

Debt neutrality is said to occur if, given a program for public spending on current goods and services over time, the real equilibrium of the economy (private consumption, investment, relative prices, etc.) is independent of the pattern of government borrowing and lump-sum taxation over time....

This paper uses an integrated model of aggregate supply to analyze the post-1973 slowdown in productivity growth in the seven major OECD economies. Factor substitution, unexpected demand changes, profitability, and inventory disequilibrium all contribute to the explanation, which is based on a...

Individuals differ in both inherited and acquired abilities, but only the latter differ among countries and time periods. Human capital analysis deals with acquired capabilities which are developed through formal and informal education at school and at home, and through training, experience, and...

Unlike physical capital, human capital has both embodied and disembodied dimensions. It can be perceived of as skill and acquired knowledge, but also as knowledge spillover effects between overlapping generations and across different skill groups within and across countries. We illustrate the...

How large are the welfare gains from trade? Would such gains be significantly amplified in the long run when productivity is endogenously enhanced? To address these questions, we focus on the dynamic effect of trade, in particular, how trade affects the incentives for technological advancement....

This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are...

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...