We analyzed the volatility dynamics of three developed markets (U.K., U.S. and Japan), during the period 2003-2011, by comparing the performance of several multivariate volatility models, namely Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC), Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and consistent DCC...

The empirical evidence of heavy tails in stock return data is recognised by risk managers as an important factor in assessing the Value-at-Risk and risk profile of investment portfolios. Tail index estimation appears to be a tailor-made tool for estimating the extreme quantiles of heavy tailed...

In this paper we propose a new tool for backtesting that examines the quality of Value-at- Risk (VaR) forecasts. To date, the most distinguished regression-based backtest, proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004), relies on a linear model. However, in view of the di- chotomic character of the...

In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied tot the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. the main conclusions are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For high...

In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied to the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The main conclusion are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For low...

This chapter recalls the main tools useful to compute Value at Risk associated with a m-dimensional portfolio. Then, the limitations of the use of these tools is explained, as soon as non-stationarities are observed in time series. Indeed, specific behaviours observed by financial assets, like...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

Extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotical distribution of extreme events, that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge with respect to the majority of observations. Statistical methods derived from this theory have been increasingly employed in finance,...

The advent of the future European prudential framework (Solvency II) and, to a lesser extent, of the phase II of the IFRS dedicated to the insurance contracts, will systematize the use of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) risk measure in insurance. Especially used for financial purposes, the measure of an...

This paper is concerned with the problem of ruin in the classical compound binomial and compound Poisson risk models. Our primary purpose is to extend to those models an exact formula derived by Picard and Lefèvre (1997) for the probability of (non-)ruin within finite time. First, a standard...