Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and...

We create a novel measure of job search effort starting in 1994 by exploiting the overlap between the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey. We examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate job search effort using time series and cross-state variation and find that it is...

This paper empirically investigates banks’ investment allocations over the recent business cycle. I identify unsolicited deposit shocks resulting from unconventional energy development and estimate bank allocations of these deposits. In the pre-recession period, banks lend 38 percent of...

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Governments in extraction countries are anxious to estimate expected investment in development projects, since they represent an essential element of the macro economy. The overall level of activity is also crucial to oil companies, since the macro picture affects cost levels, the supplies...

We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast,...

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...

Remarks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.