Implications of factor-based asset pricing models for estimation of expected returns and for portfolio selection are investigated. In the presence of model mispricing due to a missing risk factor, the mispricing and the residual covariance matrix are linked together. Imposing a strong form of...

This paper attempts to assess whether money can generate persistent economic" fluctuations in dynamic general equilibrium models of the business cycle. We show that a small" nominal friction in the goods market can make the response of output to monetary shocks large" and persistent if it is...

We construct portfolios of stocks and of bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources...

This paper builds a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model that explains the decision of heterogeneous firms to serve foreign markets either through exports or local subsidiary sales (FDI). These modes of market access involve different relative costs, some of which are sunk while...

The management of the exchange rate is possible only if the government pursues a monetary-fiscal policy mix which is consistent with its exchange rate targets. In this paper with uncertainty concerning the length of individual life the real consequences of exchange rate management depend on the...

The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings.Faced with such an attack, the central bank often withdraws...

The paper develops a model of exchange-rate and current-account determination for a small economy peopled by infinitely lived, utility-maximizing households. In this setting, a central-bank purchase of foreign exchange has no real effects when central-bank foreign reserves earn interest at the...

This paper investigates the long- and short-run neutrality of open-market monetary policy in a world of fixed exchange rates and imperfect substitutability between bonds denominated in different currencies. Using an illustrative portfolio-balance model, it shows that when the public discounts...

We study the effects of parameter uncertainty prompted by structural breaks. In our model, agents respond differently to uncertainty prompted by regime shifts in shock processes than they react to comparable perceived increases in shock volatility. The magnitude of the response to an increase in...