In this paper, we assess the effects of changes to the primarycredit facility since August 2007 by performing out-of-samplesimulations based on a model developed by Artuç andDemiralp (2008). Our results are highly consistent with thepredictions of our 2008 study—that is, the revised...

Several authors have documented a reduced variability ofoutput and inflation in the United States since the beginningof the 1980s.1 In fact, a comparison of the 1980:1-2001:2 periodwith the two preceding decades shows that the standarddeviation of quarterly output growth has fallen 30...