This paper considers forecasts of the distribution of data whose distribution function is possibly time varying. The forecast is achieved via time varying combinations of experts’ forecasts. We derive theoretical worse case bounds for general algorithms based on multiplicative updates of the...

This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and no conditions are imposed on the data sequences and the individual forecasts apart from a tail condition. The theoretical results...

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for continuous and discrete break processes. Under continuous breaks, our approach recovers...

The objective of this paper is to predict, both in-sample and out-of-sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States (US) economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1-2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonally-adjusted...

This paper presents the theoretical development of new threshold autoregressive models based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the models are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric models. Estimation and...

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility...

This paper investigates the possible existence of Granger-causal relationships in the behavior of sovereign bond markets within the European Monetary Union (EMU), with special focus on higher order causality accounting for nonlinear dependence between the variables. With the above in mind both...

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining...

A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. A statistical framework is suggested for tracking these changes over time. When the marginal distribu- tions change,...