This paper examines a mechanism of liquidity-preference fluctuations caused by changes in people’s belief about a random liquidity shock. When observing the shock, they rationally update their belief so that the shock probability is higher; consequently they raise liquidity preference and...

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as...

The dynamics of the Phillips Curve in New Keynesian, Expectations Augmented and Hybrid forms are extremely sensitive to the choice, timing and restrictions on variables. An important element of the debate revolves round what information decision-makers took into account at the time and round...

We consider the properties of two monetary policy rules (monetary targeting, Taylor-type interest rate rule) in an intertemporal equilibrium model with capital accumulation and two outside assets (government bonds, fiat money). The paper shows that the long-run behaviour of the economy depends...

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007)....

This paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area based on the factor augmented vector autoregressive approach of Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) as well as on a standard VAR model. We focus on the reaction of monetary aggregates to a one-off monetary policy shock....

Corruption is a function of its return relative to engaging in productive activities. This paper presents an approach for thinking about the institutional features of societies and the resulting amount of corruption. The empirical results suggest that political competition is more important than...

Economic interdependence of heterogeneous habit forming consumers is examined by using a two-country model. Due to endogenous interest rate adjustments, consumption-habit dynamics in one country are affected by the other country’s habits and preferences. To characterize the interactive...

It is a widely shared view in the population health field that the future of the analysis of population health lies in the assessment both of the length of life and health-adjusted quality of life, and the parallel examination of the average health and health distribution within a population....