Real-time estimates of the potential output are essential in the EU fiscal surveillance framework. They are used for the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance, one of the main indicators in the assessment of the fiscal performance of EU Member States. Our paper examines whether...

In current practice, changes in the cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) are generally interpreted as reflecting the effort of discretionary fiscal policy. This paper shows that such an interpretation is not a sufficiently accurate description of the behaviour of fiscal policy, and, in some...

This paper presents an overview of the various methodologies for estimating potential output at the macroeconomic level. Emphasis was laid on the production function approach which is used together with the univariate statistical HP filter method to produce potential output estimates for the US...

Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement...