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Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange

Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper V. - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2014

analyze empirical results for a selection of existing realized measures of volatility and incorporate them in a Realized GARCH … documented, which motivates the use of a flexible and robust methodology such as the Realized GARCH. Within this framework …-of-sample results for the Realized GARCH forecasts suggest a limited added value from using “traditional” realized volatility measures …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945126

Estimation of Volatility Functionals in the Simultaneous Presence of Microstructure Noise and Jumps

Podolskij, Mark; Vetter, Mathias - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2007

We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity. Under mild conditions the consistency of modulated bipower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005787549

A Range-Based Test for the Parametric Form of the Volatility in Diffusion Models

Podolskij, Mark; Ziggel, Daniel - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2007

We propose a new test for the parametric form of the volatility function in continuous time diffusion models of the type dXt = a(t,Xt)dt + s(t,Xt)dWt. Our approach involves a range-based estimation of the integrated volatility and the integrated quarticity, which are used to construct the test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440034

Bipower-type estimation in a noisy diffusion setting

Podolskij, Mark; Vetter, Mathias - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2008

We consider a new class of estimators for volatility functionals in the setting of frequently observed Itô diffusions which are disturbed by i.i.d. noise. These statistics extend the approach of pre-averaging as a general method for the estimation of the integrated volatility in the presence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440053

Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Diebold, Francis X.; … - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2007

Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps, hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440071

A Range-Based Test for the Parametric Form of the Volatility in Diffusion Models

Podolskij, Mark; Ziggel, Daniel - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2008

We propose a new test for the parametric form of the volatility function in continuous time diffusion models of the type dXt = a(t;Xt)dt + _(t;Xt)dWt. Our approach involves a range-based estimation of the integrated volatility and the integrated quarticity, which are used to construct the test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114121

The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model

Koopman, Siem Jan; Uspensky, Eugenie Hol - Tinbergen Instituut - 2000

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257033