Showing 1 - 10 of 70
En este trabajo se realiza un análisis comparado de los sistemas de rentas mínimas autonómicas en España con los programas de garantía de rentas en los demás países de la Unión Europea. Estos programas constituyen, dentro del amplio abanico de gastos sociales, los más directamente...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010733750
In the past decades, numerous studies have been conducted on the trade-off between guns and butter, namely defense versus social sector expenditure. The aim of this research is identifying whether indeed defense spending crowded out investment and other social expenditures as health and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010800875
Aunque la OCDE es una organización de incuestionable importancia mundial, se conoce muy poco sobre la influencia que ejerce en sus países miembros. Además, en la bibliografía existente sobre la OCDE se ha prestado muy poca atención a España. Este trabajo plantea un análisis actualizado de...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862588
This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005481438
We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976646
It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162542
Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162551
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011124200
A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries could...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208180
We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights. Building on the work of Ranjan and Gneiting (2010) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011189239