Showing 1 - 10 of 69
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819563
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938565
__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects … for forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011274348
This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078430
partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078431
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551307
installed based information and provide several ways in which installed base forecasting can be used. We discuss cases of … installed based forecasting at four companies and list the issues involved. Moreover, we provide some models to assess the value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837719
Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837733
Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837737
-of-sample forecasting exercise to study money-income Granger causality, both linear and nonlinear, we believe is new to the literature. The … forecasting results do not suggest that money is nonlinearly Granger causal for output. In fact, they show that by allowing money … to nonlinearly Granger cause output, the forecasting performance of the STVECM is significantly worsened. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837854