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"This paper examines the causes of the observed increase in the average duration of unemployment over the past thirty … in the generosity and coverage of unemployment insurance. We find that changes in the composition of the labor force and … institutional changes can only partially account for the longer duration of unemployment. We construct a job search model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521759
Major U.S. economic data, most notably GDP and Industrial Production, are undergoing major changes. Proposals have been made for significant alterations in the CPI. The revision process has helped to spur debate on such topics as the proper method of accounting for high technology's role in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717223
In recent years, the sales reports of major retail chains have received increasing attention as timely indicators of consumer spending. Despite this attention, a close review of the literature on chain store indexes as macroeconomic indicators reveals that there is no literature! This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005512192
This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387243
We take a close look at a year in the U.S. Treasury market and try to explain the sharpest price changes and most active trading episodes. The virtue of our analysis lies in its use of high-frequency data on market movements and accurate release times for a comprehensive set of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387319
In moral hazard models, bank shareholders have incentives to transfer wealth from the deposit insurer - that is, maximize put option value - by pursuing riskier strategies. For safe banks with large charter value, however, the risk-taking incentive is outweighed by the possibility of losing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001630859
This paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the United States over the past 25 years. We find that the rates of real, per-capita growth in income and output increase significantly following...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005512232
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