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Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1996
This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387243
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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
Estrella, Arturo; Adrian, Tobias - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009
Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636165
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Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1998
-run concept like the natural rate of unemployment. We examine what effect uncertainty has on the use of NAIRU in policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717255
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Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach.
Estrella, Arturo - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997
There is wide agreement that the dynamics of inflation and unemployment are influenced by supply and demand shocks … approach to decompose movements in U.S. postwar unemployment and inflation into three orthogonal components. These components … observable variables in sensible ways, and they are used to analyze and interpret inflation-unemployment tradeoffs and postwar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387351