Remarks before the Morris County Chamber of Commerce, Florham Park, New Jersey.

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at New York University's Stern School of Business, New York City.

Remarks at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at the Fordham Corporate Law Center Lecture, New York.

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate...

In this paper we rethink the NAIRU concept and examine whether it might have a useful role in monetary policy. We argue that it can, but success depends critically on defining NAIRU as a short-run concept and distinguishing it from a long-run concept like the natural rate of unemployment. We...