perspective on the linkages among monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle. It is argued that the adoption of an …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades … despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … predict ever greater amounts of negative inflation (i.e., deflation) over the years of labor-market slack since 2008 …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …

activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression … activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central …-bank-determined changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of …

capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment'. We then …

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future … each component via a vector autoregression, in response to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount … rates, rather than deficits, account for most inflation variation. Smooth inflation that slowly devalues outstanding long …

whether shortages help predict inflation. Using a variety of different specifications, I find that this time-series measure of … shortages strongly predicts inflation, and contains information not captured by commodity prices, monetary aggregates, interest … rates, and other proposed predictors of inflation. This suggests that disequilibrium was an important part of the adjustment …