Stock return volatility during the Great Depression has been labeled a "volatility puzzle" because the standard …, and Jones; 1990). We investigate the "volatility puzzle" using a new series of building permits, a forward-looking measure … of economic activity. Our results suggest that the volatility of building permit growth largely explains the high level …

cycle volatility (the "great moderation") and the large and persistent US external imbalance. In this paper we argue that an … external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation. If a country experiences a fall in volatility greater than … cannot perfectly insure against. The model suggests that a fall in business cycle volatility like the one observed for the US …

This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since … the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in … reduced variance of shocks was the dominant source of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 …

efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise …