Showing 1 - 10 of 10
Mutual fund managers can outperform the market by picking stocks or timing the market successfully. Previous work has … picking skills and little evidence of timing skills among successful managers. This paper estimates skill separately in booms … and recessions and finds that the extent to which managers focus on stock picking or market timing fluctuates with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461042
We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462008
Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium, which measures the markets' perception of cyclical variation in future output growth, than growth stocks. The ICAPM then predicts a value risk premium provided that good news about future output lowers the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462964
The question of whether and how mutual fund managers provide valuable services for their clients motivates one of the … evidence that some investment managers have skill and that attention is allocated rationally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463199
If an investor wants to form a portfolio of risky assets and can exert effort to collect information on the future value of these assets before he invests, which assets should he learn about? The best assets to acquire information about are ones the investor expects to hold. But the assets the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464743
We set up an exponentially affine stochastic discount factor model for bond yields and stock returns in order to estimate the prices of aggregate risk. We use the estimated risk prices to compute the no-arbitrage price of a claim to aggregate consumption. The price-dividend ratio of this claim...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464751
To explain the low-frequency variation in US equity and debt returns in the 20th century, we solve an equilibrium model in which households face housing collateral constraints. An increase in the ratio of housing to human wealth loosens these borrowing constraintsthus allowing for more risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465895
Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial, as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions and by substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466559
We use a standard single-agent model to conduct a simple consumption growth accounting exercise. Consumption growth is driven by news about current and expected future returns on the market portfolio. The market portfolio includes financial and human wealth. We impute the residual of consumption...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467114
characterize the optimal managerial compensation contract when firms accumulate organizational capital but risk-averse managers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463986