Recent work has demonstrated that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the …. Our model reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long … therefore greatly declines, leading to a large decrease in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment of the same magnitude …

employment growth rates across sectors (G) and the unemployment rate implies that shifts in demand from some sectors to others … are responsible for a substantial fraction of cyclical variation in unemployment. This paper demonstrates that, under … the unemployment rate. Two tests are developed which permit one to distinquish between a pure sectoral shift …

Recent critiques have demonstrated that existing attempts to account for the unemployment volatility puzzle of search … reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long-duration surplus … benefit from creating new matches greatly drops, leading to a large decline in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use … in the EU rate. The response of the unemployment rate is minuscule. These findings are at odds with the actual behavior … large unemployment fluctuations. We show that aggregate productivity shocks generate the correct comovement between the UE …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …