We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the time-varying hazard model developed by Shumway (2001) and the one-period probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998). Using data on U.S. bank failures from 1985 – 1992, we find that, from an econometric perspective, the hazard model is...

In this study, we analyze why U.S. commercial banks failed during the recent financial crisis. We find that proxies for commercial real estate investments, as well as traditional proxies for the CAMELS components, do an excellent job in explaining the failures of banks that were closed during...

This paper examines the changes induced by the actual financial crisis in the dynamic relation between the currency rates and the differentials of the interest rates from Romania and euro area. In the framework of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity hypothesis we apply the Vector Autoregressive...