In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

The process of financial integration has increased the exposure of South African financial markets to foreign financial crises. This paper contributes to the understanding of crisis transmission by evaluating several hypotheses that claim to explain how financial crises are transmitted to South...

Exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies refers to one of the most crucial policy decision in the beginning of the 1990s employed during the initial stages of the transition process. During the period of last two decades we may identify some crucial milestones in the...

This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and...

Exchange rate unexpected fluctuations determine economic development of countries the way quite similar to any other type of exogenous shocks. Unpredicted volatility in exchange rate short-run path affects macroeconomic performance the way that may be a subject of academic as well as economic...

One of the key outcomes of open economy macroeconomics refers to a crucial importance of an investment-saving relation affecting a current account determination. However, despite a relative diversity in exchange rate regimes in European transition economies, there is still a substantial...