In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

The process of financial integration has increased the exposure of South African financial markets to foreign financial crises. This paper contributes to the understanding of crisis transmission by evaluating several hypotheses that claim to explain how financial crises are transmitted to South...

This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and...

This paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard international real business cycle model augmented with preferences with zero wealth-effect, variable capacity utilization and investment adjustment costs. First, I find that the bulk of fluctuations in country-specific outputs,...

Global and European trade balances have seen strong divergences combined with strong movements in the exchange rate. Trade balances and real effective exchange rates are related. Using different measures of the real effective exchange rate, we show that this long-run link hinges on the relative...

Since the 1980s, most emerging economies have experienced economic crises associated with large, prolonged current account deficits and real exchange rate misalignment. Eventually these governments ended up devaluing national currencies. Empirical evidence from developing countries suggests that...