We explore the role of financial openness - capital account openness and gross capital inflows - and a newly constructed gravity-based contagion index to assess the importance of these factors in the run-up to currency crises. Using a quarterly data set of 46 advanced and emerging market...

Recently, it has often been argued that globalization eases the job of central banks as it helps to tame inflation. This is used to argue that central banks (particularly the ECB, referring to the objectives as laid down in the EU-Treaty) could or should reduce their efforts in the fight against...

This paper empirically examines the impact of capital flows on credit growth, credit excesses and banking crises using quarterly panel data from 43 advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Regressions show that gross capital inflows precede credit growth and credit excesses. Both...

In the nineties, the number of currency crises has been high, both in the industrial world and among emerging countries. An important characteristic of many of these crises is that they started in one country but very soon affected others as well. Currency crises seemed to be contagious. In this...

The EU accession countries have made remarkable progress in developing their financial sectors. Nevertheless, potential risks to banking sector stability remain. We take stock of these risks, with a focus on the challenges posed by the EU accession process. Important potential risks we identify...

In this report we examine time-varying correlations of asset returns using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, recently proposed by Engle (2002), that are estimated by a two-step procedure. First, we conclude that correlations vary considerably over time. Secondly, the conditional...

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework for cointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector error correction models. Maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated Generalized Method of Moments estimators. Using these...

Empirical research on contagion between international stock markets generally focuses on market returns converted to US dollars, as this would be consistent with the perspective of an international investor. This note argues that such a conversion is inappropriate, since only returns denominated...

Simultaneous bank defaults are often attributed to interbank contagion, but can also be due to common shocks affecting banks with similar balance sheets. We disentangle both effects by realising that if financial markets expect a bank's default to be contagious, an increase in this bank's...

We analyse three databases of banking crises and investigate their consistency in the identification and timing of crises. We find that there are large and statistically significant discrepancies between the three datasets. We also compare the dating of banking crises according to these...