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OPTIMAL HEDGING WITH VIEWS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2004

The optimal hedging model has become the standard theoretical model of normative hedging behavior due to its intuitive tradeoff of expected return with risk, its effcient use of information and its easy implementation. In practice, the model can be easily implemented with the Parameter Certainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005320349

THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL TRADING RULES IN US FUTURES MARKETS: A DATA SNOOPING FREE TEST

Park, Cheol-Ho; Irwin, Scott H. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2004

Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801179

THE MARKETING PERFORMANCE OF ILLINOIS CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCERS

Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2004

Marketing is viewed as an important component of the farm management process, and poor marketing is often cited as a …, and available evidence is too limited to make definitive conclusions about farmer marketing abilities. This paper examines … the actual marketing performance of corn and soybean producers in Illinois. Farmer marketing data is based on the USDA …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801187

Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Bayesian Approach to Performance Evaluation

Cabrini, Silvina M.; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2006

marketing recommendations. Results indicate that even when skeptical beliefs are incorporated into the model a few programs in … corn and several programs in soybeans appear to be better marketing alternative compared to a na�ve strategy that mimics …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039361

The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions

Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; … - In: Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 29 (2004) 02

producers' marketing philosophy, are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations. Risk attitude does not …' marketing decisions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005484176

Are Corn and Soybean Options Too Expensive?

Urcola, Hernan A.; Irwin, Scott H. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2006

A growing body of recent evidence suggests that premiums for financial options might be too high. For agricultural options, market participants often make similar claims, however there is very limited scientific literature to prove or disprove such claims. This research investigates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005525106

The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets

Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Isengildina, Olga - In: Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 31 (2006) 02

This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005525445

Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Aggregation?

Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2006

The storage at a loss paradox of positive inventories despite inadequate spot-futures price spread coverage of storage costs is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005483562