The purpose of this paper is to investigate the marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas over 1982-2004. The results show that farmer benchmark prices for wheat in Illinois and Kansas fall in the middle-third of the price range about half to three-quarters of the time....

This paper describes the degree of marketing activeness of market advisory programs for corn and soybeans, and analyzes the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. The data set employed consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS Project at the University of...

The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the...

While the risk premium hypothesis in futures markets has been the subject of a long and continuous controversy, the risk premium hypothesis in forward markets is also of interest among economists. The hypothesis is supported by some theoretical arguments and empirical evidence yet remains an...

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE,...

Long-only commodity index funds have been blamed by other futures market participants for inflating commodity prices, increasing market volatility, and distorting historical price relationships. Much of this criticism is leveled without any formal empirical support or even cursory data analyses....

This paper investigates the profitability of technical trading rules in US futures markets over the 1985-2004 period. To account for data snooping biases, we evaluate statistical significance of performance across technical trading rules using White's Bootstrap Reality Check test and Hansen's...