A model is presented in which spot and contract market exchange co-exist. A contract consists of a delivery requirement between an upstream and a downstream party. Contract formation determines to a certain extent the probability distribution of the spot market price. This contract formation...

Econometric models of commodity prices have been estimated for more than 80 years, but both structural and time series models require ad hoc assumptions to capture all the features of commodity price series. Commodities can be broadly divided into two categories: storable and non-storable. The...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/18/06.

The largest portion of dairy and milk checkoff funds is spent on generic fluid milk advertising. These funds are distributed among four distinct media outlets-television, radio, print, and outdoor. Spending too little on one media outlet or too much on another constitutes a missed opportunity to...

A two-step model with sample selection is applied to panel data of U.S. households to estimate at-home demand for fluid milk and cheese, incorporating advertising expenditures. The model consistently accounts for sample-selection bias, unobserved household heterogeneity, and temporal...

Options with different maturities can be used to generate an implied forward volatility, a volatility forecast for non-overlapping future time intervals. Using five commodities with varying characteristics, we find that the implied forward volatility dominates forecasts based on historical...