"For United States annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense-news variable), the multipliers are higher by...

Exiting the middle-income trap entails costly improvements in state capacity. That deep economic integration induces powerful actors to support increasing state capacities remain underresearched. Here we ask: Under what conditions can deep economic integration yield increases in state capacity?...