"For United States annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense-news variable), the multipliers are higher by...

This paper presents a theoretical model to analyze the effects of technology change on growth rates of income and human capital in the uncertain environments of technology. The uncertainty comes from two sources; the possibility of a technology advance and the characteristics of new...