We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...

We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...

This paper updates and extends the work of Barro (2000). International data confirm the presence of the Kuznets curve-an inverse-U shape relationship between income inequality and per capita GDP-that is relatively stable from the 1960s into the 2000s. The direct effect of international openness...