In this study, we examine the rationale that informed traders use in choosing various financial instruments in order to speculate on the volatility of the underlying asset, here a common stock. Using a continuous-time trading model, we demonstrate that the quality of the private information...

We present a new theory of asset pricing and portfolio choices under asymmetric reasoning, contrast the predictions with those under asymmetric information, and present experimental evidence in favor of our theory. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis and its formal foundation, the Rational...

Using data for the 1978-2008 period, this study presents evidence for cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) total return indices. Cointegration between the indices indicates that REITs and direct real estate are substitutable in the portfolio of a long-horizon...

We analyse questions of arbitrage in fnancial markets in which asset prices change in time as stationary stochastic processes. The main focus of the paper is on a model where the price vectors are independent and identically distributed. In the framework of this model, we find conditions that...

This paper (i) proposes a simple multi-currency model of speculative foreign exchange (FX) trading, (ii) uses a natural experiment to identify the implied components of the optimal trading strategy, and (iii) proposes a new spectral inference method to strengthen the statistical evidence on the...

We study a number of large international military conflicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the conflict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to...

I study the effects of short sale constraints in a rational framework with asymmetric information. I consider the cases of Bernoulli-distributed (à la Glosten and Milgrom) and continuously distributed (à la Kyle) liquidation values, and focus on the latter case.In this case my model is able to...

I study short-sale constraints in a market with asymmetric information. I offer a novel approach endogenizing short-sale constraints by including an asset-borrowing market in my model. Short-sellers have to borrow an asset and therefore reveal information to a lender. The lender trades on her...

The early stage of the 2007-08 financial crisis was marked by large value losses for bank stocks. This paper identifies the equity funds most affected by this valuation shock and examines its consequences for the nonfinancial stocks owned by the respective funds. We document three key empirical...

We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own- signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...