We propose two new procedures for comparing the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of a benchmark model to the MSPEs of a small set of alternative models that nest the benchmark. Our procedures compare the benchmark to all the alternative models simultaneously rather than sequentially, and do...

The bootstrap, introduced by Efron (1982), has become a very popular method for estimating variances and constructing confidence intervals. A key insight is that one can approximate the properties of estimators by using the empirical distribution function of the sample as an approximation for...

This paper develops a multi-agent dynamic model of the commercial aircraft industry and then uses that model to analyze industry pricing, industry performance, and optimal industry policy. In the model, firms are differentiated in their products and cost structure, and entry, exit, prices, and...

This paper studies a growth model that is able to match several key facts of economic history. For thousands of years, the average standard of living seems to have risen very little, despite increases in the level of technology and large increases in the level of the population. Then, after...

We investigate the choice of exchange-rate regime fixed or floating in a dynamic, intertemporal general equilibrium framework. Our framework extends Devereux and Engel (1998) by investigating the implications of internationalized production. We examine the role of price-setting -- whether prices...

We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the reallocation of US economic...

We quantify the real implications of trade-offs between firm information disclosure and long-term investment efficiency. We estimate a dynamic equilibrium model in which firm managers confront realistic incentives to misreport earnings and distort their real investment choices. The model implies...

When several investors with different risk aversions trade competitively in a capital market, the allocation of wealth fluctuates randomly between them and acts as a state variable against which each market participant will want to hedge. This hedging motive complicates the investors' portfolio...

Recent analyses of the gains to policy coordination have focussed on the strategic aspects of macroeconomic policy making in a static setting. A major theme is that noncooperative policy making is likely to be Pareto inefficient because of the presence of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This paper...

This paper illustrates the role for macroeconomic policy coordination when interdependent economies are pursuing disinflationary policies. Under flexible exchangerates, policy makers have an incentive to reduce inflation by pursuing contractionary policies that yield a currency appreciation. In...