We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

We provide a quantification of the impact through international trade of the restrictive measures and related trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We first exploit the multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium trade model by Antràs and Chor (2018). In this...

I study the causal effect of the foreign aid for development assistance —implemented by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)— on the intensity of municipality-level armed conflict in Colombia, for the period 2009-2013. To address potential endogeneity biases, I use a...

While force eradication through aerial spraying has large social costs, there is no evidence of the unexpected consequences of alternative development programs. This paper suggests an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world on political violence exploiting data on...

I study the impact of rebel governance on economic development in rural Colombia. In 1998 the Colombian government created a 42,000 square km demilitarized zone (DMZ) to negotiate with FARC, Colombia's largest and oldest rebel group. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I exploit the...

This paper analyses the response to the COVID-19 pandemic of inbound tourism to Italy looking at variation across countries and across provinces. To this end, it uses weekly data on the number of foreign visitors in Italy from January 2019 until February 2021, as provided by a primary mobile...

This paper analyses the response to the COVID-19 pandemic of inbound tourism to Italy looking at variation across countries and across provinces. To this end, it uses weekly data on the number of foreign visitors in Italy from January 2019 until February 2021, as provided by a primary mobile...

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade....