We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

I study the causal effect of the foreign aid for development assistance —implemented by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)— on the intensity of municipality-level armed conflict in Colombia, for the period 2009-2013. To address potential endogeneity biases, I use a...

While force eradication through aerial spraying has large social costs, there is no evidence of the unexpected consequences of alternative development programs. This paper suggests an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world on political violence exploiting data on...

I study the impact of rebel governance on economic development in rural Colombia. In 1998 the Colombian government created a 42,000 square km demilitarized zone (DMZ) to negotiate with FARC, Colombia's largest and oldest rebel group. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I exploit the...

We use an augmented gravity model to revisit the effect of similarity in income distributions on bilateral trade flows. Disentangling supply-side and demand-side mechanisms, we document a robust new regularity: while differences in average incomes between two countries increase trade,...

The Schengen Agreement has guaranteed unchecked travel across internal EU borders since 1995. Has it also facilitated trade flows? Our econometric analysis suggests that Schengen has boosted trade by 3% on average (equivalent to a drop in tariffs by 0.7 percentage points). Goods trade is more...

The sheer size of the EU and US economies combined suggests substantial economic benefits from eliminating tariffs, reducing the costs of regulatory divergence, and deepening cooperation. Estimating these gains is difficult: uncertainty concerning modelling choices, data, and scenarios looms...

Since July 2013, the EU and the United States have been negotiating a preferential trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We use a multicountry, multi-industry Ricardian trade model with national and international inputoutput linkages to quantify its...

We employ theory-grounded sectoral gravity models to estimate the effects of various steps of European product market integration on trade flows. We embed these estimates into a static Ricardian quantitative trade model featuring 43 countries and 50 goods and services sectors. Paying attention...