The Millennium Round of MTNs, which was stillborn in Seattle, was supposed to have initiated wide-sweeping changes to the world's trading system. This paper deals with the impact on the German economy of some changes that might have been forthcoming from proposed liberalization strategies. It...

We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

I study the causal effect of the foreign aid for development assistance —implemented by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)— on the intensity of municipality-level armed conflict in Colombia, for the period 2009-2013. To address potential endogeneity biases, I use a...

While force eradication through aerial spraying has large social costs, there is no evidence of the unexpected consequences of alternative development programs. This paper suggests an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world on political violence exploiting data on...

I study the impact of rebel governance on economic development in rural Colombia. In 1998 the Colombian government created a 42,000 square km demilitarized zone (DMZ) to negotiate with FARC, Colombia's largest and oldest rebel group. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I exploit the...

By analyzing a unique dataset from Germany’s evaluation of COVID-19 antigen rapid tests, we show that Chinese firms can excel under today’s global competition and produce tests at quality levels higher than China’s income level would suggest. We find these achievements are positively...

This paper estimates the costs of EU restraints on trade in textiles and clothing. After explaining the methods used, we examine the impact of an opening up of EU trade in textiles and clothing, inter alia to those economies where the textile and clothing (T&C) industries command sizeable shares...

We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find...

We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other...