Data in which each observation is a curve occur in many applied problems. This paper explores prediction in time series in which the data is generated by a curve-valued autoregression process. It develops a novel technique, the predictive factor decomposition, for estimation of the...

In this paper we study corporate debt values, capital structure, and the term structure of interest rates in a unified framework. We employ numerical techniques to compute the firm's optimal capital structure and the value of its long-term risky debt and yield spreads when the value of the...

In this paper we estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure in order to analyze two issues. First, we analyze the effect of introducing an explicit term structure channel in the NKM model on the estimated parameter values of the model,...

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable historical yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and volatility matrix of a multivariate interest rate...

Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that behaviour of interest rate processes can be better explained if standard diffusion processes are augmented with jumps in the interest rate process. In this paper we examine the performance of both linear and non-linear one factor CKLS model in the...

The term spread may play a major role in a monetary policy rule whenever data revisions of output and inflation are not well behaved. In this paper we use a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model...

We conduct an extensive empirical analysis of VIX derivative valuation models before, during and after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Since the restrictive mean reversion and heteroskedasticity features of existing models yield large distortions during the crisis, we propose generalisations...