In this paper we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough...

This paper compares several methods for constructing weekly nowcasts of recession probabilities in Italy, with a focus on the most recent period of the Covid-19 pandemic. The common thread of these methods is that they use, in different ways, the information content provided by financial market...

The causal effect of the European Central Bank's corporate bond purchase program on bond spreads in the primary market is evaluated, making use of a novel regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that the program did not, on average, permanently alter the yield spreads of eligible...