We document how the impact of monetary surprises in the euro area and the US on financial markets has changed since 1999. We use a definition of monetary policy surprises that singles out movements in the long end of the yield curve, rather than those that change nearby futures on the central...

This paper presents ideas and methods underlying the construction of an indicator that tracks the euro area GDP growth, but, unlike GDP growth, (i) is updated monthly and almost in real time; (ii) is free from short-run dynamics. Removal of short-run dynamics from a time series, to isolate the...

We analyze the impact of US macroeconomic surprises and forecaster heterogeneity on the USD/EUR exchange rate and US and German long-term interest rates from 1999 to 2014. We show how a direct proxy of macroeconomic disagreement, given by the heterogeneity of beliefs among forecasters regarding...