In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the...

In the present paper I examine tax revenue projections in Germany over the period 1968 to 2012 with a focus on forecasting rationality. I show that tax revenue forecasts for the medium-term are upward biased. Overoptimistic revenue projections are particularly pronounced after the German...

We study the short- to medium-run effects of starting a career on a fixed-term contract on subsequent fertility outcomes. We focus on the career start since we expect that temporary contracts and their inherent economic uncertainty implies a path dependency which might have spill-over effects on...

This paper deals with the effects to labour market institutions on labour market performance. We analyse the employment threshold (the minimum growth rate necessary to keep employment constant) which is an indicator for the labour intensity of production. We show for 17 OECD countries for the...

Business tendency surveys are a commonly accepted instrument for the assessment of the current business cycle course. Most of these surveys rely on qualitative questions about the current situation of the firms and about heir expectations for the next months. This paper analyzes whether...

We examine how highway accessibility influences local employment outcomes. We exploit the stagewise expansion of the "Baltic Sea highway", the largest contiguous highway construction project in Germany since 1945. Results from difference-indifferences estimations and an event study approach show...