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Value-at-risk and extreme returns
Daníelsson, Jón; Vries, Casper G. de - 1997
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
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Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps from overnight foreign stock price patterns
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
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Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency financial time series
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003979849
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Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps fom overnight foreign stock price patterns
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003934266
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Systemic risk diagnostics : coincident indicators and early warning signals
Schwaab, Bernd; Lucas, André; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771823
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Generalized dynamic panel data models with random effects for cross-section and time
Mesters, Geert; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009722706
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Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016
We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505
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Realized Wishart-GARCH : a score-driven multi-Asset volatility model
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Janus, Paweł; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2016
We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
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A weak bifurcation theory for discrete time stochastic dynamical systems
Diks, Cees G. H.; Wagener, Florian Oskar Ottokar - 2006
This article presents a bifurcation theory of smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are governed by everywhere … of the system. By introducing a weak equivalence notion of these dependence ratios, we arrive at a bifurcation theory for … which in the compact case, the set of stable (non-bifurcating) systems is open and dense. The theory is illustrated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349208
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Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; Ooms, Marius; … - 2007
We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372520