This paper explores the domestic and international effects of an increase in observed interest rates (conventional monetary policy) and expected interest rates (forward guidance). We find significant spillovers to a broad range of countries when both are subject to a tightening shock: Output...

We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the joint transmission of bank and sovereign risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS...

Older version is available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2899670We investigate the effect of the “Effective Monetary Stimulus” (EMS) on German and euro-area macroeconomic variables using a small-scale vector autoregression (VAR). The EMS is obtained from yield curve data and survey data, and...

One way of evaluating how well monetary authorities perform is to provide the public with a regular and independent second opinion. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are shadowed by professional and academic economists who provide a separate policy rate recommendation...