We employ real-time data available to the US monetary policy makers to estimate a Taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output...

We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three commonly studied small open economies (SOEs): Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a common stochastic volatility in mean panel VAR (CSVM-PVAR), and develop an efficient...

Using a unique data set on provincial net factor income flows disaggregated across the three asset classes of debt, equity and FDI reinvested earnings in Korea, we investigated how these asset channels impacted consumption risk sharing during the Global Financial Crisis and the European...

Regulatory policy can create economic and social benefits, but poorly designed or excessive regulation may generate substantial adverse effects on the economy. In this paper, we present measures of sentiment and uncertainty about regulation in the U.S. over time and examine their relationships...

This paper investigates the oil market reaction to its fundamental shocks: supply, aggregate demand and oil-specific demand in different regimes characterised by high versus low uncertainty in the market. We do so by first proposing a novel oil uncertainty index that is measured by the...

This paper evaluates how initial beliefs uncertainty can affect data weighting and the estimation of models with adaptive learning. One key finding is that misspecification of initial beliefs uncertainty, particularly with the common approach of artificially inflating initials uncertainty to...

The paper proposes an innovative approach for the analytical solution of agent-based models. The approach is termed Dynamic Stochastic Generalized Aggregation (DSG-A) and is tested on a macroeconomic model articulated in a job and in a goods markets with a large number of heterogeneous and...

We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal...

In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rate in the short run...

How does the yield curve respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962- 2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found to predict...